Mortgage Rates Near 11 Month Lows—What’s Next With the Fed?

Quick Take

• The average 30-year fixed dipped to new ~11-month lows after the early-September jobs report, then held in a tight range this week.

• Producer Price Index (PPI) came in cooler than expected; CPI was roughly on-target with a softer “supercore.” Together, that supported steady-to-slightly-better rates mid-week.

• Friday saw a tiny uptick (~0.02%)—more “position-squaring” than new data. We’re still near the lowest levels since Oct 2024.

• Borrower activity jumped: applications rose week-over-week, with both purchase and refinance demand improving.

Tip: If you priced a loan in August, re-check your numbers. Small rate moves can meaningfully change payment or approval amounts.

Why Rates Behaved This Way (in plain English)

• Jobs report (Fri before Labor Day): Weaker hiring = markets expect slower growth = bond rally = lower mortgage rates.

• PPI (Wed): Wholesale inflation cooled more than expected, helping rates hold steady instead of drifting higher.

• CPI + Jobless Claims (Thu): CPI was close to forecasts; a softer “supercore” plus higher unemployment claims kept the door open for the Fed to prioritize growth risks over inflation—supportive for rates.

• Today/Friday: A minor bounce likely tied to traders tidying positions ahead of next week’s Fed announcement. The consumer takeaway: we’re still near the lows.

That Chart You’re Seeing Online? Here’s the Catch

Many headlines cite Freddie Mac’s weekly survey, which averages rates from Thu–Wed. Daily indexes (like MND’s) captured the sharp drop last Friday immediately; Freddie reported it the following Thursday.

Result: you may read “rates fell this week” when the drop actually happened last Friday—and daily tracking shows this week was mostly flat, inside a narrow low range.

What This Means for You

If You’re Buying

• Lock-and-Shop: If you find the right home, consider locking while we’re near multi-month lows.

• Boost Approval Power: Lower rates can improve your max purchase price or make monthly payments more comfortable.

• Pre-Approval Refresh: If your pre-approval was from mid-summer, ask for a quick payment and cash-to-close refresh.

If You’re Refinancing

• Debt Consolidation: Lower rates can help reduce total monthly outflow—run a break-even on costs vs. savings.

• Shorter Term / Faster Payoff: Some homeowners can shave years with minimal payment change.

• PMI/MIP Check: If you’re close to 20% equity (or have FHA to refi out of MIP), ask about removing mortgage insurance.

What Could Move Rates Next

• The Fed (next week): A 0.25% Fed Funds cut is widely expected and already reflected in today’s mortgage rates.

• What matters more: the “dot plot” (Fed members’ path for future cuts) and the press conference. A more rate-friendly path could help keep mortgage rates at the low end of the range; a cautious tone could limit further improvement.

Quick Stats Snapshot (week of Sep 8–12)

• Average 30-year fixed: near multi-month lows, with a very small Friday uptick that still leaves rates close to the best levels since Oct 2024.

• Applications: Weekly data show broad demand improvement—purchases up, refis up—with some borrowers exploring ARMs given their rate advantage vs fixed.

Rates, terms, and availability vary by borrower profile, loan type, and market conditions. Not a commitment to lend.

Have questions or want to talk through your options?
Just fill out the contact form on this page or give me a call—I’m here to help.

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Source: MortgageNewsDaily